So the country of Bahrain has been occupied. At this point only expats from developing countries remain in the country. Western expats have absconded. The question is what happens next.
Economy in shambles
In the short term, the Bahraini economy will be brought to a standstill. Saudi troops are everywhere. Shiite Bahrainis will see that they are in a lockdown situation and will be able to do nothing. But investors will for the time being refuse to have anything to do with the country and tourists will not come anywhere near. No one has any confidence that there will be stability in the country for months, if not years to come.
But after awhile things will get better. This has actually happened before in the early 1990s. Bahrain recovered and the Saudis left after the government made promises and allowed for more democracies and rights for the Shiite citizens of the country. Unfortunately, promises made by the government were rescinded and events in Tunisia and Egypt convinced Bahrainis that protest was a means to enforcing change.
What happens next?
My expectations are that the Saudis will stay awhile and billions of dollars will be given to the Bahraini government in the hopes that the people can be bought off through jobs and outright welfare. Will it work? It all depends on Bahrain’s leadership. If money is siphoned off to fund the wealth of the government rather than the people, we can expect to see this all happen again and again in the future until the Saudis run out of money and the Shiites win. After all, there are more of them then there are Sunnis.
Expats who have lost jobs and who have left the country are not going to get their jobs and lives back so easily. The Bahraini economy will have a tough time convincing the outside world that it is “Business Friendly” again. In the years to come Bahrain will attract foreign investment, but the world is getting increasingly tired of seeing the Sunni monarchy refuse to help its Shiite citizens and make the changes necessary to be seen as a modern democracy by the international community.
